Cymatic Trader Community

[mpcsousa]

Hi all,

I am a little bit concern about the strategy i am using on US races.

My strategy is based on the race transmisson. What i do? Well.......in the last minutes, before the race is suspended, I see the odds on the favourite in the race transmisson, and compare with the odds on betfair. Next, see the ammount of money corresponded on the horse, and try to understand if the odd is too high (or low) for the expected on the transmission (Beters).
In the first days, I can say that in the beggining, as you can show, the success was on!!!...but then..........

Am I doing right? Guess not......regarding to my unprofitable account! What can I do? I am using the Offset (1 ticK), with SL in 5 ticks, with the green option on!

The percentage in the ladder shows me the direction of the market? higher the percentage in the lay side show me the price should be up? Lower should be down?

BR

Marco

[Gavin]

Hi Marco,

Perhaps the odds displayed in the USA live video are odds available from bookmakers at the race track, in which case they will be very low odds because they would include the bookmakers profit margin?

If so then your value betting opportunities would come when the Betfair prices are very much higher than the prices shown in the live video.

Do the live video odds show prices to back and lay, or just to back?

Assuming you are taking value bets at worthwhile prices correctly, then it might be best not to green them up with the tick offset and stop loss, because it might limit your winnings to 1 tick, whilst making large losses of 5 ticks. Instead, you could consider not using an offset/stop-loss and just leave all bets to win or lose, then you would win more often than the odds predict because you keep getting good value.

I think that trying to combine a value betting strategy with a tick offset strategy might be confusing. If you want to close value bets before the race starts then you should be looking to close them when they have moved to your expected odds (mean reversion) or close them for a stop loss when they have drifted too far away from the mean from a risk reward perspective. I am guessing that trying to do this by choosing a 1 tick profit and a 5 tick stop-loss probably does not correlate to mean reversion, nor may it be mathematically earning you value or a good risk reward.

I'm not saying that tick offset and stop-loss are not useful, just that I think it might be a problem when you try to use them as part of a value betting strategy with fixed tick sizes that don't correspond to the distance to the mean (the expected correct odds).

Kind regards,
Gavin

[mpcsousa]

Hi Gavin,

Thanks for your prompt reply!!!!

First let me tell you that I am lovin' my experience with the Cymatic platform, whatever the final result! A very user friendly product, with so many (excelent) tools provided, regardind a good profit (the best word for all traders ).

The odds displayed on live video are only back odds, and, to be honest, don't know if they are with or without bookmakers fee.

I will try not to use the Offset/SL as you said.....as I can always green up (or red out) before the market is suspended.
The percentage number in the ladder is something that I need to study for a better understanding!

Why the weight of the market only appears (in percentage) on the lay side of the ladder? My reading about thatr is higher the percentage, the market tends to go down. Correct?

Bet regards, and always keep up the good work!!

[rowbot]

Hi Marco
The I believe the WOM only takes account of the money in the next 3 back and lay odds on the ladder. Depending on which is the greater, you will only see a percentage above that bet type so if there is twice as much money on the back to lay side, you will see 66% above the back column indicating that the WOM points to the odds drifing out. One thing to watch out for is where someone trys to force the market in 1 direction or the other by placing "fake" bets at the 2 or 3 tick point on the ladder with no real intention of them matching. E.g. Back at 5.0 (£100), back at 5.1(£100) back at 5.2(£100) lay at 5.3(£100) lay at 5.4(£100) lay at 5.5 (£800) would give a WOM of 76.9% above the lay indicating that odds should drop but when the person with their money at 5.5 has achieved what the want (or it doesn't look like its going to do what the want) they just withdraw their money with very little chance of any of it being matched but creating a false WOM value.

[mpcsousa]

Hi rowbot,

Thanks for your explanation and advice!!!

Best regards, and all of luck (work) !!! Happy "ticks"

Marco