Cymatic Trader Community

[merlotman]

One for you to ponder on, a punter is laying every horse in every UK race at 1.83, i trade in aussie dollars and the sum is normally 9200 dollars, about 6000 pounds i believe.
He also backs every horse but at different prices and the amounts vary. If the horse is trading around the 2 mark he lays at about 1.4...All these bets are cancelled at the off
so he never really stands a chance of getting matched.
My theory is that he is waiting for a big spike up or down during trading, you do sometimes see a massive swing momentarily, but normally in the upwards direction.
He has been doing this for at least 6 months and putting out a lot of money so whatever it is, it is working for him.
Anyone notice this? or have any ideas

[Gavin]

Hi Merlotman,
Yes, I noticed someone offering large size (I vaguely remember it being about £4000 I think but it might have been more) always at two or three very specific price levels, probably the ones that you mentioned. It stands out due to its large size and that it is nearly always at the exact same prices and on all horses. I think I saw it at 3 prices on a regular basis in the region of 1.8 (yes it probably was 1.83), 1.6 and 1.4. I also noticed that the bets got cancelled later on but didn't check whether it was at the off. I only looked briefly but I didn't see them ever get matched.

I didn't given it much thought yet, but my first thoughts were similar to yours. I wondered if it was someone trying to capture 'fat finger' errors when they happen.

I also wondered if it was someone trying to manipulate the predicted SP price, but I haven't recently studied the way that is calculated so I don't know whether it is even possible to manipulate to predicted SP price.

Yes I sometimes feel that there are more aggressive price spikes in the upward (lay) direction than in the downward direction, pre-play. I sometimes wonder whether a corrupt jockey causes this, although it does seem to happen very often. You'd hope there isn't that level of corruption but I suppose it is possible. The markets do seem to have been rather more volatile recently and sometimes make crazy price moves. I saw one recently that was trading at 2.0, drift out to 80 and then come back down to around 60 and got matches all the way through the run. All a few minutes before pre-play.

Kind regards,

Gavin

[merlotman]

Hi Gavin

Thanks for your input, I have just watched a video tutorial about 'Fat Finger' on Youtube, and it does seem to be a more frequent event than i imagined.
It is also something that can be programmed automatically...If i had a spare 100k i might have been interested...

merlotman