### Searching for 'value' bets

Posted:

**Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:59 pm**Search for added 'value' when building a strategy. Gaining a profitable advantage can be achieved in many different ways, but in essence your techniques should involve finding value, which means backing above or laying below the actual true odds of the outcome occuring (or ideally making both bets).

'True odds' means the actual probability of an outcome occuring, which obviously can't ever be calculated with 100% accuracy for a future sporting event, so mathematical techniques are usually used to estimate it as accurately as possible. Often the exchange prices will diverge from the estimated true odds for the event, for example due to an imbalance of supply and demand, or because some participants have differing opinions of what the true odds should be. These movements in prices can create opportunities to trade and find 'value'.

When a bookmakers sets their odds at the start of the day, they will choose odds that are below what they have calculated and believe to be the true odds for each outcome, thus they achieve 'value' by tilting probability in their favour by their desired profit margin. Calculating odds with reasonable accuracy can be very complicated and often requires a considerable grasp of mathematical probability distributions and statistics, so understandably most punters might not want to calculate the odds themselves!

There are lots of ways that you might be able to create value for yourself, depending on your skill set and interests. For example any of these might contribute to your success:

Perhaps it is worth pondering that the robot feature on the ladder in the Cymatic software, could actually be considered as just another variation on the value theme. It tries to near-simultaneously back higher and lay one tick lower, which is perhaps a form of market making that assumes, in that moment at least, that the market believes that the true odds ('fair value') is to be found mid-way between the back and lay price. Or at least that the markets interpretation of true odds is likely to hover around that point for long enough for you to earn a tick.

Whatever approach you choose, good luck searching for value. Then with value in your favour, who needs luck?!

Best wishes,

Gavin

'True odds' means the actual probability of an outcome occuring, which obviously can't ever be calculated with 100% accuracy for a future sporting event, so mathematical techniques are usually used to estimate it as accurately as possible. Often the exchange prices will diverge from the estimated true odds for the event, for example due to an imbalance of supply and demand, or because some participants have differing opinions of what the true odds should be. These movements in prices can create opportunities to trade and find 'value'.

When a bookmakers sets their odds at the start of the day, they will choose odds that are below what they have calculated and believe to be the true odds for each outcome, thus they achieve 'value' by tilting probability in their favour by their desired profit margin. Calculating odds with reasonable accuracy can be very complicated and often requires a considerable grasp of mathematical probability distributions and statistics, so understandably most punters might not want to calculate the odds themselves!

There are lots of ways that you might be able to create value for yourself, depending on your skill set and interests. For example any of these might contribute to your success:

- Being good at statistics and applying mathematical distributions to predict the fair odds and then look for value bets (as mentioned above).
- Being good at trading with software such as Cymatic, for example repeatedly backing and laying to earn a tick, working the order book queue, etc
- Being faster, for example using faster technology such as a quicker video feed, or by going to the actual event to see the tradeable action before it is noticed by other punters who are at home watching a delayed TV stream.
- Studying recent performance, injuries, tiredness, new players, etc. and then trying to develop an extra insight.
- etc...

Perhaps it is worth pondering that the robot feature on the ladder in the Cymatic software, could actually be considered as just another variation on the value theme. It tries to near-simultaneously back higher and lay one tick lower, which is perhaps a form of market making that assumes, in that moment at least, that the market believes that the true odds ('fair value') is to be found mid-way between the back and lay price. Or at least that the markets interpretation of true odds is likely to hover around that point for long enough for you to earn a tick.

Whatever approach you choose, good luck searching for value. Then with value in your favour, who needs luck?!

Best wishes,

Gavin