Cymatic Trader Community

[telstar2]

..... no time for any adjustment to spreadsheet, and of course all the sports going on today. So managed to test six races today from 3-10pm to 4-00pm using yesterday's stats. All six races managed to block out all leading horses and although this was encouraging I would like to see some twosomes coming home. Maybe some slight adjustment necessary.

[telstar2]

..... sorry, not a lot happening as far as I am concerned. My Excel is out of action since yesterday afternoon, so cannot test anything. Does not seem to be a lot of action on here anyway, judging by postings.Surely there must be like minded people like me out there with some interest in this spreadsheet and the strategy
involved. Anyone with progressive ideas?

[nig299]

You could get a lot of data from the Betfair pricefiles download site. Along with other info it also gives the inplay min price (attached sample extracted from one days racing).

Given that the winner will always be returned at 1.01, it must have, at some stage reached for example the 1.61 as in the original sheet.

You can see that in the first race there were 3 runners that reached (and went lower than this)

In the next 6 races there were two qualifiers, then none in the next 3 as so on.

[Gavin]

.....Gavin Iv'e been thinking about the changes which Nigel suggests above. I think these appear to be quite reasonable and I was wondering if it was time once again to amend the LTF3 spreadsheet to reflect that which we have just learned. It does look beneficial.

Hi telstar2,

Yes Nigel's amendments are very reasonable, but I'd rather leave it up to users to decide whether to adopt them, based on their personal preference (in particular regarding the first of his amendments). My personal preference is to submit the bet at a fixed price of 1.61 and hope for a price improvement at the exchange. Whereas the change that was suggested would cause the bet to be submitted at whatever price is prevailing on that horse in that instant, so it might fail to get matched if price moves back up a little bit whilst the bet is travelling through the internet. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is personal preference.

For example, price reaches 1.5, then with version 3 of the spreadsheet, the bet would be submitted at your fixed odds of 1.61, but might be improved to 1.5 if that price is still available when the bet reaches the exchange. However with Nigel's proposed amendment, the bet would be submitted at 1.5, so would only get matched if the price of 1.5 was still available when the bet reached the exchange and got through the in-play delay imposed by the exchange (it would not be matched if price had moved up to 1.6).

Both pricing methods are potentially good. It just depends whether you want to try to ensure that you get the lower price (as price fluctuates around it) or whether to try to ensure that it gets matched by submitting at the higher price. I prefer the later, but that doesn't mean it is the best way because I haven't tested both.

I haven't had time to test the second proposed change, but I feel confident that is would be a good one, because Nigel is experienced at coding these things.

Kind regards,

Gavin

[telstar2]

.... OK no problem with that, leave it to your fair judgement. Just thought that it may go some way towards stopping some of the rogue bets getting matched.

[telstar2]

..... thanks Nigel for your contribution on inplay prices above. Looking at your attached file on presented races, I noted that to a large degree it was mostly races over two miles which appear to have a fair rate of success using my tested method. So now that I have my Excel file up and running again I will make some effort towards testing races over two miles ans see how many manage to get more than one horse matched. Thanks for your suggestions.

[telstar2]

..... HI Nigel. I would like to know more about these Inplay Betfair sheets you mention above. I must be looking through a glass eye, as I cannot see where they come from on the Betfair site. Can you advise please just where they are and how these can be downloaded? Many thanks.

[telstar2]

.... not much time tonight to monitor and test the racing on offer. After Nigel's Inplay sheets my intention was to trial races 2 miles and beyond, but there was no opportunity to carry this out. So tonight's testing consisted of five races all 1 mile to one and a half miles. Results ended with one race of 7 furlongs getting one horse matched alone, which was something we did not want in this strategy. The other four races put up resistance and no horses got through the statistical barrier, but no twosomes came home either, so it remains on a learning curve. Onwards and upwards to tomorrow night.

[nig299]

The files can be found here:

https://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/

but you can go blind after a while trying to sort out which ones you need. I made a program a while ago so that you can download a whole years worth in one go. I know from experience that the Befair files also includes special bets, forecasts, etc, so these would have to be removed to get a decent data set.

Note: There were nearly 27,000 files two years ago, so should be a fair few more by now.

I'll see if I can dig the program out and post it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMpchy4xcbo

[telstar2]

..... thanks very much Nigel, you are a star and look to be genuinely interested in the strategy. That file you posted up above looks to favour races over two miles. I always thought that the sprints would be best, but your sheets tend to show good results for longer distances. I will look out for that program you mentioned in your last post and see if I can retrieve more information to support those longer distances.