Cymatic Trader Community

[telstar2]

.... Excel was just a suggestion, just do something simple, just some list would do. I would not be doing anything special algorithmic or otherwise. Probably try to define patterns and at what odds etc. Try to define just where the pressure points are for at least two horses to start fighting it out to the finish. If you don't want to divulge here then you can PM me, it is up to you. At the end of the day I am just a punter like many, looking for a neat and simple system.

[telstar2]

....What happened Stephan? Have you decided to opt out due to no analysis?

[telstar2]

.... for anyone interested my experiments continue. I operated seven races tonight with reduced odds on the secondary horse, with the following results:-
Four races - no horses laid. One race only the one lay. Two races where there were two lays. So not too bad considering.

[StefanBelo]

Here are data for two races, in both of them lay the field strategy could be executed:

https://www.kaggle.com/stefanbelo/lay-t ... d-strategy

Summarize your finding here, so leave it in public domain.

[Gavin]

Well done telstar2 and StefenBelo, it is nice to see you working on this strategy.

Kind regards,

Gavin

[telstar2]

.... thanks Gavin I have always been interested in this strategy and I definitely think there is some scope for improvement here. I tested another ten races today and although I did not make a fortune, I did not have huge losses either. Just requires some fine tuning I think. Here are today's results:-
10 Races tested from 16.00pm.
Only the first race where only one lay was matched, and surprisingly it was matched at 1.43 when the program was supposed to be matched at 1.61. Why was this Gavin?
Then I had six races where no leading horse got through to lay.
And the icing on the Cherry I had three races where there were two horses matched as lays. The second, third and fifth races yielded these successes.
The second race had horses matched at 1.61 and 1.53.
The third race had horses matched at 1.61 and 1.61.
The fifth race had horses matched at 1.14 and 1.30.
So, Gavin can you advise why some of these odd matches took place when the program was set to lay at 1.61? The loss we had at race one should never have happened surely as the program should have cut the lay out at 1.61. Is this not so?

[nig299]

I think it's to do with the way Betfair will always give you the best odds. As a layer it more beneficial (your layout is less if you lay at 1.41 as opposed to 1.61), and although the excel formula is showing 1.61, Betfair will automatically give you the 'better' odds.

In BA2 of the spreadsheet, maybe it would be better if it said "Lay if odds <=" ?

I've changed the formula in BB8 to reflect the current lay odds if <= those shown in BA2

Code: Select all

=IF(AND($BB$4=TRUE,$J8<$BB$1,$J8>0,OR($BG$3=TRUE,$BK$2=TRUE)),IF(J8<=$BB$2,J8,""))

and to stop the "LAY appearing if the odds aren't correct the formula in BA8 to

Code: Select all

=IF($BB$4<>TRUE,"Deactivated",IF($J8>=$BB$1,"Watching prices",IF($J8=0,"Price is 0",IF(AND($BG$3=FALSE,$BK$2=FALSE),"Strong favourite",IF(BB8<>"","LAY","")))))

I know there have been several versions of this spreadsheet with the formulas amended, you'll have to check to see if the original formulas are the latest

Cheers,Nigel.

[telstar2]

.... thanks for your contribution Nigel. I am no expert in coding so I will take your word for the changes you suggest and have another play around with the spreadsheet. I know that when the lay odds are lower it is more beneficial, I just thought that with the lay odds firing in at 1.61 it would have stopped anything lower from happening. Since my return from a two year absence I am quite encouraged by the way this spreadsheet is shaping up. Over the past two days I have tested 17 races and there have been ten occasions where the stats I have used have completely stopped any leading horse from solely getting matched. Obviously it is not what is required to keep a winning hand, but on the other side of the coin, there is nothing lost either. There has also been 5 occasions out of the seventeen where there has been two matched, so definitely food for thought. Can you advise exactly what your new code does for the ordinary laymen? Had a brief look at your sheets Stephan and LTF Strategy saw No Hidden Charge trading minimum 1.01 with the nearest horse at 2.96 so looks like only one horse getting matched there under the present setup. On LTF 2 once again Vale Of Kent trade at 1.02 with Spanish City at 2.1, so again I would say that only one horse would have romped home there. Maybe there was more to see, but my eye only saw those stats I'm afraid. All suggestions from any interested parties always welcome. Thanks.

[nig299]

The formulas I posted won't have any effect on the way it behaves. It just reflects the lay price at the times the conditions are met (and will change everytime the price moves).

[telstar2]

.....Gavin Iv'e been thinking about the changes which Nigel suggests above. I think these appear to be quite reasonable and I was wondering if it was time once again to amend the LTF3 spreadsheet to reflect that which we have just learned. It does look beneficial.