Fixed win/risk staking plan - explained

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Fixed win/risk staking plan - explained

Postby Gavin » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:28 pm

A fixed win/risk staking plan is a method of choosing your stakes to try to:

1) Avoid sudden huge falls (and leaps) in your balance. A more steady profit curve is better than an eratic one.

2) Enable you to keep making bets even at higher odds, that you would otherwise shy away from because of the low hit rate.

The maximum profit or loss on each bet, is limited to a fixed amount and remains constant. So the chosen stake for each bet, depends on the odds and therefore takes into consideration the probabilities of winning or losing. You use a larger stake (risk) for bets with a higher chance of winning, and a lower stake for bets with a lower chance of winning.

Here are the rules:

Suppose that we define our maximum win/risk appetite per bet to be 1 unit. In this example 1 unit = £100 (or whatever you choose as the size of 1 unit in reality):

If the odds are <= 2.0: The stake is always 1 unit


  • Back bet example at odds of 1.55: the stake is 1 unit (£100), so the potential win is 0.55 units (£55), the potential loss is 1 unit (£100)
  • Lay bet example at odds of 1.55: the stake is 1 unit, so the potential win is 1 unit (£100), the potential loss is 0.55 units (£55)

If the odds are > 2.0: The stake is always calculated as 1 unit (i.e. £100) divided by the odds

  • Back bet example at odds of 5.0: the stake is 0.25 units (£25), so the potential win is 1 unit (£100), the potential loss is 0.25 units (£25)
  • Lay bets example at odds of 5.0: the stake is 0.25 units (£25), so the potential win is 0.25 units (£25), the potential loss is 1 unit (£100)
    So for back bets at odds above 2.0, the winnings are limited to 1 unit (£100)
    So for lay bets at odds above 2.0, the losses are limited to 1 unit (£100)

This ensures that neither the loss or win amount of any bet will exceed 1 unit (£100).

By comparison if you had simply used a level staking plan (always betting £100, regardless of back, lay, or odds) then you would see much more eratic changes in your account balance. For example laying £100 at odds of 5.0, you could lose £400 in just one bet. At even higher odds, the difference becomes even more extreme.

Obviously a fixed win/risk staking plan is not a strategy to make profit in itself. It is simply a method to try ensure that your profit or loss is a smoother curve, rather than an eratic one, especially if you want to bet at higher odds. You could use the fixed win/risk staking plan in conjunction with a successful strategy of picking value bets, to hopefully enjoy a smoother ride.

Kind regards,

Gavin
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