Cymatic Trader Community

[Bastun1]

Hi,

First time on here, so hello to the hopeful hordes.

I have to say that, though I have used a relatively small data sample (testing for a week), I am nevertheless quite disappointed with the Football Predictor!

I would say that 90% of my predicted values have not been reflected in actual values taken approx 3 days prior and observed again 5 min before kickoff.

I am mindful of Gavin's reply to the Football Predictor post/thread some dozen or so below this one where he says that it is likely that the statistical base people are likely to adjust values closer to an event due to volatility but the older data (say 2 or 3 days pre) should supply adequate pointer information to odds movement towards True Value.

For instance, today's Premiership matches. The Predictor (or the statistical base?) was woefully off kilter in predicting the odds values for such as C Palace v Fulham, Brighton V Watford, Chelsea v Huddersfield, etc etc. Not one gave a profitable prediction.

If I was betting at £50 or £100 values, instead of testing, then I would have been sorely tried.

I average both statistics sites Superiority and Total Goals values for a finer input.

I am at a loss to understand why this is. As some wiseguy said, the greater the statistical base the greater the regression to the mean.

Still, ever optimistic, I will plough on.

Anyone any ideas?

Cheers

[Gavin]

Hi Bastun1,

Thanks for posting your message.

It sounds like you are have a good understanding, but I'd be happy to check your values if that helps to make sure you haven't made a mistake. Could you give me some examples of the actual input values and which odds were available in the market please? Ideally please choose a market that is not about to start within the next day, so that I have time to check the values.

When you say that you didn't get a profitable prediction, I presume that you mean that the market odds didn't revert to the predicted odds, not that the outcome of the game would not have been profitable. The football odds predictor, is designed for the former (predicting the true odds before a game), not the latter (predicting a result).

Kind regards,

Gavin

[Bastun1]

Hi Gavin,

Thanks for the reply.

Yes, the predicted odds were checked 5 min before the off. Naturally, the statistical base and it's derivations will not predict a particular result.

I will compile a new spreadsheet for upcoming games 2 days forward of now and send it to you. You will find the data you requested within. The spreadsheet will contain the relevant odds 5 min before the game so you will not get it until Saturday.

Cheers and thanks,

Bastun1

[Gavin]

Hi Bastun1,

OK, I will await the information.

Do keep in mind that it is the erratic market forces that create trading opportunities by causing the price to move away from the expected value temporarily. Those market forces may occur at any time, so there is no guarantee that reversion to mean will be evident at 5 minutes before the off. Although you'd hope for reversion to expected price as the game approaches, it is possible that reversion to mean may have occurred prior to that and then moved off again due to unexpected market forces just prior to the game. This is obviously not a perfect science.

If you get a chance, please also post the initial input values a couple of days before the off rather than waiting until 5 minutes before the off. Hopefully that will give me a chance to check that you've interpreted the values correctly at the two website. If you only post the information 5 minutes before the off then I definitely won't get a chance to go to the two websites to check the input values ahead of time.

Kind regards,

Gavin

[Bastun1]

Hi Gavin,
Your comments re reversion to mean occuring randomly appreciated and understood. This, of course implies that one needs to be constantly checking odds if a Lay or Bet is made at calculation time which is appropriate to the suggested Predicted odds and making a closing bet/lay while making a descision when/if the optimum moment occurs as opposed to holding off for a better situation in line with Predicted odds. I would have thought that 5 min before kickoff might be that time.

Here are some data as requested. A complete spreadsheet will follow after 5 min pre-kickoff figures are added.


Villa v Sheff U Calc( 6th/2010), Off( 8th/1945), Superiority (0), TGoals ( 2.3), Villa Prediction:2.88, Odds at Calc (2.74/2.78), Action:(Lay 2.8. Bet high) . Sheff Prediction (2.88), OaC***: (2.76/2.8), No action viable. Draw (3.28), OaC(3.6/3.65), Action: Bet 3.6- Lay low, (most likely +ve EV)



Real Valla v Villareal Calc 6/2100, Off :8/2000, Sup -0.2, T Goals: 2.5, R Valla Prediction:3.25, OaC 3.15/3.2, Action: Lay 3.2. Bet high. Villareal Predicted 2.48, OaC: 2.25/2.58, Action: Bet 2.52-Lay low. Draw: 3.46, OaC:3.4/3.45, No action. Draw Prediction: 3.46, No Acion.


Chievo v Roma Calc:6/2200, Off: 8/1900, Superiority: -0.9 , TGoals: 2.9, Chievo Predicted: 5.36, OaC: 5.8/6.2 , Action: Bet 5.8. Lay low (goodish + EV if Pred approxed). Roma Predicted: 1.74, OaC: 1.68/1.69, Action: Lay 1.69 Bet High. Draw Predicted: 4.21, OaC: 4.2/4.44.

*** OaC (Odds at Calculation))



Admittedly a small sample. I am attempting to upload a more coherent spreadsheet of above data with a further two matches added . It will, of course, be without "5 min pre-kickoff" odds.
Problem with spreadsheet file extension not allowed. Have tried .ods and .xls. Can you advise?

Cheers,

Bastun1

[Bastun1]

Hi Gavin,

Amendment to Villa V Sheff - (Villa -Action: Lay 2.78-Bet high). Instead of ( Lay 2.8). Sorry!! Tired.

Regards

[Gavin]

Thanks for posting the information. I can confirm that you appear to be gathering the input values correctly. So that looks fine.
Please see below, I examined the prevailing odds 2am on 8th Feb.
My conclusion is that so far you should be in profit on the Villa v Sheffield bets and break-even / no change in the Real Valla v Villareal bets.
I haven't checked the third match.
You can submit your closing bets and then leave them working in the market to hopefully get matched, so there is probably no need to sit and watch them constantly for days. In which case your positions on Villa v Sheffield would have now closed for a profit.
Obviously this is a tiny sample set so can't read much into it, however it does at least demonstrate a positive outcome on this occasion.
Spreadsheets are only allowed in certain parts of the forum. There is no need to post the results 5 minutes before the off. What is important really is whether your closing bets would have been matched for a profit at some point if you had left them working in the market.
Kind regards,
Gavin

Hi Gavin,
Villa v Sheff U Calc( 6th/2010), Off( 8th/1945), Superiority (0), TGoals ( 2.3), Villa Prediction:2.88, Odds at Calc (2.74/2.78), Action:(Lay 2.78. Bet high) . Sheff Prediction (2.88), OaC***: (2.76/2.8), No action viable. Draw (3.28), OaC(3.6/3.65), Action: Bet 3.6- Lay low, (most likely +ve EV)

Snapshot of outcome at 2am on 8th Feb:
Villa: prevailing odds 2.88/2.9. So predicted odds hit (2.88), so close your position now by backing at 2.88 for a profit on your opening lay bet (which was at 2.78)
Draw: prevailing odds 3.55/3.6. So only a 1 tick move toward the predicted odds so far, but not a loss.

Hi Gavin,
Real Valla v Villareal Calc 6/2100, Off :8/2000, Sup -0.2, T Goals: 2.5, R Valla Prediction:3.25, OaC 3.15/3.2, Action: Lay 3.2. Bet high. Villareal Predicted 2.48, OaC: 2.25/2.58, Action: Bet 2.52-Lay low. Draw: 3.46, OaC:3.4/3.45, No action. Draw Prediction: 3.46, No Acion.

Snapshot of outcome at 2am on 8th Feb:
Real Valladolid: prevailing odds 3.15/3.2. So no change in the odds yet.
Villareal: prevailing odds 2.56/2.58. So not much change in the odds yet.
Draw: prevailing odds 3.4/3.45. So no change in the odds yet.

[Bastun1]

Hi Gavin,

I thank you for the work that you have undertaken to answer my questions. I will take onboard your advice and proceed accordingly.

Best wishes,

Bastun1