football odds predictor

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football odds predictor

Postby philip987 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:56 pm

Hi i wondered how the spread firms calculate home supremacy.I thought it was a set value but notice it can change as the day goes on and same with goal supremacy.Ive just started using the odds predictor and finding it very interesting.My best bet today was stoke city 1-0 true odds estimated at 8.8 and you could of layed at 8.0 or 8.2.If i was betting id be tempted to take 8.6 or maybe 8.8 the way the money was stacked.I went back to spread ex about 15 mins before kick off and home supremacy had gone up slightly making the 1-0 9.16 i think.Just wondering if you should keep monitoring the supremacy for any changes to aid you in making any decisions.
ive noticed sometimes a few hours before the trad the weight of money might be against your trade and sometimes psychologly can put you off a little.
thanks phil
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Re: football odds predictor

Postby Laugro1968 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:04 am

Hi,

I think the odds predictor is an original tool being offered by this particular software.
Spreadbetting sites do adjust their quotes as the kick-off time approaches, but not always.
I don't have enough experience with the predictor at this time, but the real question is:
- Do the maket forces align the odds with the predictor more often than the spreadbetting sites would correct their early assessments?
- Does the comparaison with oddschecker give a clearer indication as to which one (spreadbetting or BF) will tend adapt their prices? Keeping in mind that bookies do adapt their odds too.

I think we'll need practice but if anybody (or Gavin:)) could give us a clue, that would surely be appreciated!

Thanks,

Laugro
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Re: football odds predictor

Postby philip987 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:56 am

yeah need practice like you say monitoring odds etc and using own judgement.
i think the predictor could be right for man u v liverpool.Could of backed man u at 3.7 but i do fancy them to go to predicted odds of 3.5 but we will see.Was gonna get me £2 on but dont want to force the price in just yet :lol:
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Re: football odds predictor

Postby Gavin » Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:41 am

Yes the spread betting firms do sometimes adjust prices as time moves forward. My expectation is that the early prices for goal supremacy and total goals are based on statistical expectations whereas the subsequently adjusted prices begin to factor in the volatility of market forces. Therefore we use the early prices as our guide of true value. The Football Odds Predictor tool therefore aims to help you to determine trading opportunities that are based on the difference between the early statistical prices ('true' prices) and prevailing market prices, in the expectation that market prices ought to move to align with the statistical prices more often than not, or even if they do not align that they still offer good value betting opportunities.

Kind regards,

Gavin
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Re: football odds predictor

Postby Laugro1968 » Fri Oct 21, 2016 6:24 pm

Hello Gavin,

Thank you for these precisions.

Regards,

Laurent
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